The convergence of two brutal triggers affecting the social fabric have provided the catalyst for the acceleration of the process of globalisation to a new level - Hyper-Globalization. This effectively marks the emergence of cooperation and synchronization of the major practices and protocols for nations on a grand scale.
It will involve the intermeshing of not just trade, but decision-making on all critical issues- social norms, conflict resolution, environmental protocols etc- including the management of energy, food, water and air. It will also require the rapid creation and strengthening of common frameworks for managing commerce, education, science, technology, legal, financial, health, computing, communication and engineering processes on a world-wide scale.
The first trigger- Global Warming- now requires the synchronized efforts of all nations to fend off the biggest catastrophe likely to befall the inhabitants of any planet- a runaway extreme climate- threatening to destroy the ecosystems, environment, habitats and social networks of many life-forms.
Of course our earth has been through many natural catastrophic cycles in the past- from freezing to sauna weather conditions. The last ice age ended 14,000 years ago, having caused serious dislocation to life on the planet, including our own species, which came precariously close to annihilation. But soon after, our modern civilization got off to a flying start with the gift of an unimaginably rich natural environment waiting to be exploited. And exploit it we did.
In addition there have been at least five previous major life extinctions over the past 540 million years- the last causing the demise of dinosaurs 65 million years ago; triggered by mega volcanic, meteorite, plate tectonic and weather events. But each time life effectively regrouped after its near-demise and powered on, resulting 200,000 years ago in the evolution of modern humans.
The difference of course between those previous extinction events and our current pending apocalypse was that they all occurred when there were no human species around to feel the effects. But this time it’s different, with a population of 6.5 billion and rising. Now the sixth mega-annihilation event is on us, with the likelihood that if not averted in time, billions of humans and hundreds of thousands of plant and animal species will disappear.
Only cooperation on a global scale to reduce high levels of carbon emissions can avert this scenario.
The second catastrophe likely to trigger hyper-globalization has been the current collapse of the world’s financial and economic systems. After a number of false and fragmented starts, the framework for a global solution has been signed and sealed by the G20- the group of the 20 largest nations in terms of GNP, accounting for 85% of world trade.
Over the last two years the crisis has deepened, with frantic efforts by individual countries to avoid the worst of the financial tsunami engulfing them, by pumping trillions of dollars into the world’s crippled financial institutions, while at the same time shoring up jobs through massive infrastructure and subsidy programs.
Finally it dawned on the largest players – the US, EU, China and India, that the only chance for redemption was global cooperative action. This time around, solving the effects of a lethal firestorm on a national or regional basis, by building currency and trade firewalls, was just not going to work.
The Global Framework arrived at by the G20, includes the following five components-
Recapitalise and repair the financial system to restore lending
Strengthen financial regulation to re-build trust
Fund and reform international financial institutions to provide better global support
Promote global trade and investment, avoiding protectionism
Build a recovery that is inclusive, green and sustainable
Each of these elements demands globalized action, revolving around two major institutions- The International Monetary Fund and Financial stability Board.
Financial resources available to the IMF for lending will be increased to $750 billion and Special Drawing Rights- SDRs to $250 billion.
The FSB will collaborate with the IMF to provide early warnings of excessive financial risk and the actions needed to address them, as well as extending regulation and oversight to all major financial institutions instruments and markets, including hedge funds. It will also establish a single set of high quality global accounting standards.
But this hastily prepared agenda may not be enough to save the financial and economic infrastructure and may require a complete scientific rethink of the forces shaping markets and capitalism as well as the basis of traditional economic theory in general. With some notable exceptions such as China and South East Asian economies, Australia, Brazil and Germany, most of the rest of the world is still at risk two years later of slipping back into negative growth.
The combination of global warming threatening the planet’s natural environment and the massive financial collapse affecting our economic and institutional environment, has created a perfect apocalyptic storm.
All future global policies and processes will be both constrained and driven by these two potentially terminal shocks to human civilization.
On the upside however, solutions to both will ensure future massive benefits for our 21st century civilization through cooperation and globalization supported by an exponential increase in knowledge and innovation.
Neither solution can be allowed to fail.
